Dramatic developments in France, where chaos and destruction prevail in the eurozone's second-largest economy... constitute a massive bonus for the patriotic camp and Marine Le Pen. Based on all polls, Le Pen will win on May 2, 2027, in the presidential election runoff against all potential opponents.
The first round on April 18, 2027
The presidential elections will be held on April 18, 2027, and Le Pen with the National Rally party will achieve figures of approximately 33% to 35%... while the runner-up exhibits figures around 16%.... The scale of Le Pen's ultimate victory will depend on who advances to the runoff alongside her. Should Philippe from Macron's Centrists advance, he will receive roughly 47% against Le Pen's 53%. Le Pen surges to 70% if left-wing Mélenchon advances to the runoff, where he will receive approximately 30%. Should Socialist Glucksmann advance to the runoff, he will receive 46% against Le Pen's 54%.
Le Pen blames the Left and Macron for the chaos
Le Pen, candidate of the Patriotic Right for the presidential elections on April 18, 2027, following the shock of demonstrations and looting, emphasized: "We are experiencing a crisis of trust." This was stated by the French presidential candidate. According to her, this constitutes "a threat against democracy." Le Pen of the National Rally attributes blame to the far-left, but also to Macron, a president, as she states, "without credibility and without prestige." According to the National Rally, "France was humbled" by demonstrations and looting. According to certain indications across France, participants exceeded 100,000, with unprecedented images and chaos prevailing everywhere.
Curfews in France
The image of French cities following the violent weekend captures the scale of the crisis. More than 500,000 people participated in demonstrations, according to reports on mobilizations largely initiated by students, which quickly expanded to gather citizens protesting the cost of living, conditions in education, and the degradation of public services. Most marches were peaceful. However, groups of protesters proceeded with store looting, vandalism, arson of public buildings, and attacks against police officers. The Limoges town hall was set ablaze, while commercial shops suffered extensive damage. According to data transmitted by Reuters, approximately 2,400 people were arrested during clashes, while nearly 1,000 police officers and gendarmes were injured. 
Damage to businesses and shops provoked additional concern regarding the economic consequences of unrest. The government attempted to restore order with increased police presence and restrictive measures. Local curfews were imposed in areas of Paris, including around Place de la République and Les Halles, as well as parts of other cities. In Lille and neighboring municipalities, restrictions were imposed on minors, while corresponding measures were announced in Nice and other areas. In Marseille, gatherings and demonstrations were banned. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu stated that the night from Monday to Tuesday was calmer, noting that new measures will be imposed wherever deemed necessary. Relative calm, however, does not mean the causes of social tension have been addressed.
Macron targeted as the country sinks into crisis
Social unrest intensifies pressure on President Emmanuel Macron, who faces criticism for his decision to conduct a three-day tour in the Middle East, with stops in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, at a time when France faces one of its most severe waves of unrest in recent years. Macron has argued that the goal of the trip is to secure energy supplies, address high fuel prices, and strengthen defense and energy cooperation with Gulf countries. However, his absence from the domestic political front has provoked criticism. Political commentator Christophe Barbier told RTL radio that "there is no pilot left in the plane," while La Dépêche du Midi newspaper heavily criticized the French president, linking his tour to the image of a country sinking deeper into crisis. Unrest unfolds in a particularly critical political juncture. France has a fragmented parliament without a stable majority, while the April 2027 presidential elections approach. Opposition parties attempt to capitalize on social discontent while the government is called upon to pass a difficult budget. Political confrontation now concerns not only security and managing unrest, but also whether the existing economic policy model can meet citizens' needs.
"Either the markets or the people will revolt"
Against the backdrop of political instability, social rage, and rising borrowing costs in France, fears of a new debt crisis are intensifying. Yields on French bonds are moving at levels causing alarm, the Paris stock exchange faces heavy pressure, and Sébastien Lecornu's government is called to manage a difficult fiscal impasse while thousands of citizens demonstrate against high prices and political paralysis. Strict reforms on the table mirror those applied in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland during the Eurozone crisis, while an intervention by the European Central Bank remains possible under specific conditions. "Either bond markets will revolt, or the people, or both," warns Mike Bell of RBC BlueBay Asset Management, describing the explosive dilemma facing Paris.
"If you are an international investor considering investing in French bonds, this situation does not help," stated Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe. "It seems that either bond markets will revolt, or the people, or both sides," Bell added. Foreign investors hold an increasingly large share of French public debt. Their share rose from approximately 48% at the start of 2022 to nearly 60% by early 2026, a factor that may lead to greater bond market volatility during periods of risk aversion. "What France needs is to put its finances in order. It must raise the retirement age. You cannot retire at 62 when average life expectancy reaches 84 years. But if all this happens before they even begin discussing such a measure, imagine what would happen on the streets of France if they attempted to raise the retirement age. In Britain, for instance, it stands at 68 years," Bell added. "This situation does not make the country look particularly easy to govern at a time when hard decisions must be made."
The budget challenge
France's borrowing costs, as reflected in benchmark sovereign bond yields, touch their highest levels since 2002, as investors demand higher compensation to fund the country's public spending. Primary sources of concern include uncertainty ahead of next year's presidential election—where far-right Marine Le Pen leads in multiple polls—and whether Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority government will succeed in passing the 2027 budget currently under negotiation. Budget negotiations are becoming increasingly difficult in France and have already led to the downfall of two of Lecornu's predecessors. Analysts estimate creditors demand a strong fiscal consolidation program to avert a crisis. France's persistently high deficit as a percentage of GDP and weak economic growth continue to exert upward pressure on sovereign borrowing costs, adding to the expense of servicing public debt. "It will be difficult to see the fiscal deficit narrow without painful measures," stated Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs.
"Taxes on French businesses could well rise. I believe taxes in France may rise more broadly. Fiscal consolidation means you must either spend less or raise taxes. Both are very difficult," she said speaking to CNBC. Bell added that Le Pen, who is recording high polling figures during this period, has spoken of maintaining a "golden fiscal rule" during her tenure, without however detailing how it would be implemented. "One reason the yield spread between French and German bonds is not narrowing is that investors doubt there will be fiscal consolidation and a reduction in the budget deficit," she noted. For his part, Ken Egan of KBRA pointed out that last week's bond auctions showed "very strong underlying demand for French debt" still exists. "More broadly, this morning is characterized by an investor turn away from risk, but France clearly faces greater pressure. The question markets will ask is how easily France can actually make progress from here on," Egan noted.
Does the risk of a debt crisis loom?
Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs added she does not view current conditions as justifying an emergency intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB), which, as she said, "does not want" to utilize tools such as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). However, she noted that if widening yield spreads begin disrupting market liquidity, the ECB would choose to activate this specific mechanism. Such a move would be politically sensitive and would likely require France to commit to even stricter fiscal reforms over a long period, akin to those implemented by countries like Greece, Portugal, and Ireland during the Eurozone crisis, she added."Sometimes pressure from markets is required. And that is precisely what we have seen this year," she noted.
Mike Bell of RBC BlueBay Asset Management stated for his part that France faces a "very real risk" of confronting its own sovereign debt crisis. "Ultimately, they must put public finances in order. If you proposed even simply the measures truly required to achieve this, you would not get elected. And if you attempted to implement them without having received an electoral mandate for them, you would have riots on the streets." Before any intervention occurs, a "gigantic clash" will take place between the winner of the next election and the ECB, Bell added. The central bank is unlikely to intervene if countries do not comply with the EU's excessive deficit procedure, under which the general government deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. France's current deficit stands at approximately 5%. Governor of the Bank of France Emmanuel Moulin stated last week to CNBC that the rise in French bond yields is driven by political uncertainty. However, he maintained that it is "possible to return the deficit to 3% in 2029," as envisioned by the government target.
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